Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
